As every quarter, UN Tourism publishes its analysis on international tourism performance. Data for the first three months of 2026 once again show a sector capable of demonstrating strong resilience: international tourist arrivals increased by 2% compared with the same period of the previous year.
The Middle East crisis had visible effects especially in March, when growth in arrivals slowed to a modest +0.4%. In the first two months of the year, however, demand had maintained a much stronger pace, recording a cumulative increase of 2.5%. Overall, the quarterly balance remains positive: according to UN Tourism, around 307 million people travelled internationally between January and March, 6 million more tourists than in the same period the previous year.
Summer 2026, cautious optimism but the outlook is uncertain
However, the outlook for the rest of the year appears more uncertain. The United Nations agency warns that a prolonged crisis could reduce growth in international arrivals by one or two percentage points compared with the forecasts made at the beginning of the year, which pointed to an increase between 3% and 4%.
The main factors affecting traveller confidence are disruptions to air connections to, from and within the Middle East, rising transport costs driven by higher oil prices, and difficulties in supplying aviation fuel. In this context, travel could become more expensive and complex, pushing part of demand towards closer destinations and reshaping international tourism flows.
For summer 2026, however, cautious optimism prevails in the tourism sector. The UN Tourism confidence index, based on the assessments of around 300 experts, stands at 105 points for the May–August period: a figure lower than the previous four-month period, but still above the equilibrium threshold. In this context, the Americas could benefit from the boost generated by the FIFA World Cup 2026, scheduled between June and July.
Tourism growth: Europe and Africa lead the way
Geographically, international tourism growth in Q1 2026 was driven mainly by Europe and Africa, both up 4% compared with the same period last year. Europe confirms its position as the world’s leading tourism destination with over 130 million international visitors, supported particularly by strong performance in the Mediterranean region and Central and Eastern Europe. Africa also maintained positive momentum, mainly thanks to the dynamism of North Africa.
Growth was more moderate in Asia-Pacific (+3%), which was affected by difficulties in major Middle Eastern aviation hubs, although it recorded very strong results in Oceania and North-East Asia. In the Americas, international arrivals increased by 2%, with particularly strong performance in Central America.
The Middle East recorded a negative trend, with a 14% decline in arrivals due to the ongoing conflict, although Egypt stood out with a 16% increase. Among the most dynamic destinations globally are Paraguay, New Zealand, El Salvador, Mongolia, Palau and Uzbekistan, all posting significant growth.
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