A 2024 summer season in line with that of last year, therefore very positive. The forecasts for Italy formulated by Human Company and Thrends, a company specialized in analyzes and strategies in the tourism & hospitality sector, are contained in the 2024 edition of the Outdoor Tourism Observatory. With an estimated 56.5 million presences for the months of June, July, August, and September, the volumes of the 2024 summer outdoor tourism season are expected to be not much different from the 56.3 million of last year and to increase by 1% compared to the pre-pandemic period (55.9 million recorded in 2019).
This forecast is also based on the growth in bookings recorded by tourist operators (outdoor and trade) and institutional operators: in March 2024, around a fifth of the accommodation facilities already had an occupancy between 61% and 80%.
“The Outdoor Tourism Observatory, now in its fourth edition, represents a unicum and a reference point of great value for all tourism operators and entities,” states Domenico Montano, Managing Director of Human Company. “Further underlining the validity of this study is the fact that last year’s expectations regarding attendance for summer 2023 proved to be perfectly in line with the actual data. In the current edition, the forecasts for the upcoming summer season place it in line with the last two years: this is certainly positive news that makes us look to the future in a positive way, but it highlights the importance of calibrating investments and to carefully support the growth of the sector. Our Group is about to start a new season and, also on the basis of the Observatory data, we expect a very positive trend regarding attendance in our structures“.
Markets and destinations
The foreign market will be increasingly decisive: the best performance since 2017 should in fact be recorded, with an estimated 30 million visitors (53% of the total). Trade operators see Germany as the fastest growing country of origin, followed by Holland and Denmark.
The Italian market, which will make up the remaining 47%, will be more or less in line with past years, but slightly decreasing compared to 2021 values and below the pre-2020 average values. This is certainly affected by the return of long-haul travel and travel to Mediterranean countries, the decline in purchasing power and the revision of the holiday budget.
The North-East is destined to confirm itself as the leading geographical area in terms of performance (25.1 million estimated presences) especially for Northern European tourists. The other areas of Italy will instead be more stable, with results like those recently achieved or with a slight decline.
“In recent years we have seen a reduction in the weight of summer on overall outdoor demand volumes,” comments Giorgio Ribaudo, Managing Director of Thrends. “This edition of the Observatory also confirms the trend towards more distributed camping holidays in Italy over the course of the year. A phenomenon which is accelerating with the rise in average temperatures, recorded in 2022-2023. Among other phenomena of particular attention, we have noted the growing importance of the foreign market for the segment and the polarization of performances between the North (North-East in particular) and Southern Italy, the latter still with a low rate of product innovation and unfortunately distant from the most promising incoming markets. In summary, we expect an overall volume of demand for summer 2024 close to the 2023 values. We are therefore at a crossroads: at the end of 2024 we will understand whether the segment’s momentum is running out or is instead destined to continue to sustain itself“.
Factors analyzed and economic impact
Among the factors analyzed to arrive at the Observatory’s forecasts are the global state of conflicts, including those in Ukraine and Palestine, the constantly growing appeal of Italy on the part of foreign markets and the confirmation by the internal market of a predisposition to travel beyond national borders. Two other elements should have a significant impact: the increase in demand for the tail months of the season and the growth in tariffs.
The analysis made it possible to estimate the direct economic impact of the outdoor sector, which by 2023 stood at around €4.79 billion. This figure, calculated by estimating an average daily direct expenditure of the outdoor tourist of €65, represents the contribution to the economy brought by the expenditure of tourists who choose open-air accommodation formulas. If compared to the direct impact of tourism in Italy, equal to €100 billion (Source: Openeconomics and TorVergata Foundation), outdoor represents approximately 5% of the market.
The Observatory’s analysis io includes all the players in the open-air macro-sector (camping and tourist villages). For the 2024 edition, the survey was extended to a panel of 300 trade and institutional operators and an in-depth analysis was introduced to estimate the direct economic impact of the outdoor sector. The complex data collection work involved numerous entities, including ISTAT, Eurostat ,and the competent offices of all the Italian Regions.
