The summer season is approaching, and the signs are positive. In fact, between 45 and 49 million travelers – 55% Italians – will choose outdoor facilities for their holidays in Italy. This is the 5th edition of the Outdoor Tourism Observatory created by Human Company, a Florentine group leader in Italy in open-air hospitality, in collaboration with Thrends.
This report starts from the analysis of the situation of restrictions and vaccinations in the main incoming markets, and uses ISTAT data for the three-year period 2017-2019 as a reference for the history of the segment – which in the pre-pandemic period recorded on average about 81 million presences and an expense value of 4.3€ billion. Against this, two possible scenarios for en plein air tourism are hypothesized. In the “best case”, which considers a relaxation of the restrictions as at April 30 and 49 million admissions, the total loss of spending on the Italian territory would amount to 435€ million. In the “worst case”, where the restrictions continue until May 30 and the attendance drops to 45 million, the loss would reach 686€ million.
The drop will be between 14% and 22%
According to the two scenarios outlined in the report on the possible trend in outdoor demand for summer 2021, understood in its broader perimeter – that is, the one that includes, in addition to camping, camping villages and tourist villages, also mountain huts and farm holidays – the decrease in national volumes of the segment will be between 14 and 22 percent compared to pre-pandemic data.
“This is a forecast that once again confirms a decline compared to the three-year period 2017-2019, although – despite the serious impact suffered by the tourism industry worldwide – it demonstrates the resilience of the outdoor sector in Italy, also supported by its intrinsic characteristics: the flexibility of the solutions, the sustainability of spending, the link with the founding values of the holiday, such as leisure and contact with nature”, says Bruna Gallo, CCO of Human Company.
The best scenario shows – talking about the top 5 foreign markets (Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria and France) – a loss contained between 19% and 29 percent, while the domestic market stands at a decline of 3.2 percent. In the worst case scenario, on the other hand, it is estimated a decrease in foreign presences ranging from 27% from Germany and Austria to 34% from the Netherlands, with the Italian market registering a decrease of 13.8%. Among the main evidence, it should be noted that the decrease in Italian demand is still lower than that from abroad, contrary to the pre-pandemic period, and leads to estimate for the domestic market a complete recovery in August and September of historical volumes, in the best case.
Long-range tourism will slowly recover
Even if foreign demand is destined to record significant drops on pre-penademic numbers with major contractions between June and July, months that suffer from the excessive proximity to the period of possible resolution of the pandemic crisis, the difference between the two scenarios is not so significant, as some important “longhaul” markets will have a very slow recovery.
According to the report, with regard to the demand flows of the German-speaking countries, it is very useful to consider the surveys on the upcoming Whitsunday (May 23rd) as a significant thermometer of the flows of the most relevant market for the Italian outdoor. Compared to 2019, the structures of the Upper Adriatic (Bibione, Lignano, Caorle, Cavallino) are gaining bookings with occupancy rates close to 50%, despite the overall decline of 35%, and the Lake Garda area has registered an on- the-book lower by 17/18 percent. Volumes for the Tuscan coast, where bookings are arriving more slowly, remain very low.
What makes the difference
Comparing with the past summer season, the report highlights how, in a context of greater safety and tranquility from the health point of view, people want to “move”. In this context, the tendency to reduce the distance of travel will be confirmed, even immediately after the relaxation of restrictions, favoring domestic destinations or neighboring countries, and to narrow the booking window between the booking and the stay. A further trend, detected in 2020 and which will be repeated also in 2021, is that of the search for a holiday in contact with nature, perhaps outside renowned destinations, to look for quieter and less crowded places and open-air activities.
By focusing on quality and innovation, the open-air segment has managed to gain increasing interest from Italians, who find the ideal response to new needs and expectations in the outdoor formula: a stay experience in contact with the nature in total safety and equipped with every comfort.
“The new edition of the Outdoor Tourism Observatory confirms the positive trend already seen in the past season, highlighting the growing confidence of customers, especially Italian, in open-air hospitality”, says Luca Belenghi, CEO of Human Company. “We are convinced that the domestic market can constitute an important basis from which to restart with optimism and prudence for the summer of 2021. We believe in a recovery, which will undoubtedly be gradual, towards a ‘new normal’. Overall, after a very complex first half, we expect an increase in turnover starting from June compared to last year, which basically means a gradual recovery on the shoulder periods and holding on to the high season. With this in mind, the Group will continue to invest in innovation, first of all digitization processes, services and training of our staff to continue to offer – as we have always done – safe and quality holidays, in structures immersed in the most beautiful corners of our country, between uncontaminated landscapes, cities rich in history and art, memorable and multisensory experiences”.
Second day of the Italian Forum Open Air: a new vision for outdoor hospitality