Closing 2023 at 88% of pre-pandemic levels (with an estimated 1.3 billion international arrivals), international tourism is poised to recover all lost ground in the years of the health crisis by 2024. This forecast comes from the UNWTO, which has just released the latest World Tourism Barometer. According to the international organization, three favorable conditions will contribute to a full recovery in the current year: the explosion of residual demand, increased air connectivity, and the recovery of Asian markets and destinations.
The predictions speak of a 2% growth in 2024 compared to 2019 levels, but much will depend on the pace of recovery in Asia, currently the most challenging region, and the evolution of existing economic and geopolitical risks.
Nevertheless, tourism is a resilient and rapidly growing sector, highlighted Zurab Pololikashvili, Secretary-General of the UNWTO: “The recovery is already having a significant impact on economies, jobs, growth, and opportunities for communities worldwide. These numbers also underscore the critical task of advancing sustainability and inclusion in tourism development“.
Middle East Leads the recovery
According to UNWTO data, the Middle East recorded the best performance in 2023: with a 22% increase in arrivals compared to 2019, the region is the only one to have already achieved the goal of full recovery. Europe is also close to pre-pandemic levels, thanks to strong intraregional demand and travel from the United States, allowing for a 94% recovery compared to 2019.
Other positive signals come from Africa, which has recovered 96% of pre-pandemic visitors, and the Americas, reaching 90%. Asia and the Pacific also show encouraging results, albeit with variations between regions. The reopening of various markets and destinations has allowed, overall, to reach 65% of pre-pandemic levels. While South Asia has already recovered 87%, Northeast Asia struggles and only reaches 55%.
Tourism accounts for 3% of global GDP
UNWTO data also highlight the positive economic impact of the ongoing recovery. According to preliminary estimates, international tourism revenues will reach $1.4 trillion in 2023, approaching the $1.5 trillion earned by destinations in 2019. Total revenue from tourism exports (including passenger transport) is estimated at $1.6 trillion in 2023, nearly 95% of the $1.7 trillion recorded in 2019. Tourism thus represents 3% of global GDP.
Among the industry indicators, it is also noteworthy that, according to UNWTO’s Tourism Recovery Tracker, both international air capacity and passenger demand have recovered about 90% of pre-pandemic levels by October 2023 (IATA). Additionally, the global occupancy rate of accommodation facilities reached 65% in November, slightly higher than the 62% in November 2022 (STR data).
Optimism for 2024 despite economic and geopolitical tensions
Full recovery of pre-pandemic levels seems to be within reach, and industry professionals are not hiding their optimism: 67% believe they can achieve better results in 2024 than in 2023, 28% expect stable performance, and only 6% foresee worse results (UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index).
Several factors will contribute definitively to the recovery of international tourism, including some visa facilitation measures that will drive travel to the Middle East and Africa (for example, China is applying a visa exemption for citizens of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Malaysia until November 30, 2024). Europe is expected to remain a major player in tourism in 2024, especially with Romania and Bulgaria entering the Schengen area (from March) and the Paris Olympic Games (July-August). Finally, travel from the United States, supported by a strong dollar, will continue to favor destinations in the Americas and beyond.
However, economic and geopolitical tensions and issues that have already influenced the results of 2023, such as wars, inflation, high-interest rates, and labor shortages, could still hinder or slow down the path of recovery in 2024, affecting transportation and accommodation costs and, consequently, negatively impacting tourism. The future bet, therefore, remains attracting tourists with an offer that has the right quality-price ratio and focuses on sustainability, a value increasingly sought after and appreciated by consumers.
Open-air tourism on the rise, with a future of sustainability and training: discussed at Lake Garda