The international travel sector continues to regain ground, reaching 97% of pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2024. The data comes from the latest statistics published by UN Tourism (formerly UNWTO), which indicate that over 285 million tourists traveled internationally between January and March 2024, about 20% more than the same period in 2023.
The projections for 2024 from the international body are optimistic and indicate not only the full recovery of the sector within the year but also a 2% growth in arrivals compared to 2019 levels. The strong recovery of international tourism also positively affects the UN Tourism Confidence Index, which reached 130 points (on a scale of 0 to 200) for the January-April period, above the expectations (122) expressed for this period in mid-January.
In a statement, UN Tourism Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili expressed satisfaction with the sector’s recovery, emphasizing “the need to ensure adequate tourism policies and destination management aimed at promoting sustainability and inclusion, while also addressing the externalities and impact of the sector on resources and communities”.
Growth in all regions
Growth is occurring in all world regions but is particularly strong in the Middle East, which had already fully recovered pre-pandemic levels in 2023. According to data from the UN agency for the first quarter of 2024, international arrivals in the Middle East grew by 36% compared to pre-pandemic levels and by 4% compared to 2023.
Europe, the world’s most visited region, also saw growth, finally surpassing pre-pandemic levels with a 1% increase over 2019, thanks to 120 million international tourists welcomed in the first quarter of 2024. In the same period, Africawelcomed 5% more arrivals than in the first quarter of 2019, and 13% more than the same period in 2023.
The Americas also showed positive results, practically recovering pre-pandemic numbers in this first quarter, with arrivals reaching 99% of 2019 levels. Lastly, Asia and the Pacific, despite the delay, are experiencing rapid growth, with international tourism reaching 82% of pre-pandemic levels.
North Africa leads the subregions’ recovery
Looking at the sub-regions, almost all of them have caught up with 2019. While the best results come from North Africa (Q1 2024 with 23% more international arrivals than in 2019), Central America (+15%), the Caribbean and Western Europe (both +7%), Southern Mediterranean Europe also managed to exceed pre-Covid levels for the first time (albeit by just 1%). Finally, 2019 levels were practically equalled by South America, while Northern Europe (which recovered 98% of 2019 levels), Sub-Saharan Africa and North America (both with a 95% recovery) are very close to doing so.
Finally, data on individual destinations highlight the excellent results of Qatar (+177% compared to 2019), Albania(+121%), Saudi Arabia (+98%), El Salvador (+90%), Tanzania (+53%), Curaçao (+45%), Serbia (+43%), Turks and Caicos (+42%), Guatemala (+41%), and Bulgaria (+38%).
International Tourism in 2023: 3% of Global GDP
International tourism revenues reached $1.5 trillion in 2023, indicating a full recovery of pre-pandemic levels in nominal terms, but 97% in real terms, adjusted for inflation. By regions, those with the best performances in 2023 were: Europe, which exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 7% in real terms; the Middle East (+33% compared to 2019 levels); the Americas (which recovered 96% of pre-pandemic earnings) and Africa (95%). Asia and the Pacific earned 78% of their pre-crisis revenues, a notable result compared to the 65% recovery in arrivals last year.
Total export revenues from international tourism, including both receipts and passenger transport, reached $1.7 trillionin 2023, about 96% of pre-pandemic levels in real terms. Tourism’s direct GDP recovered pre-pandemic levels, reaching an estimated $3.3 trillion in 2023, equivalent to 3% of global GDP.
The destinations that achieved the best results in terms of revenues in the first quarter of 2024 compared to 2019 levels are: Serbia (+127%), Turkey (+82%), Pakistan (+72%), Tanzania (+62%), Portugal (+61%), Romania (+57%), Japan (+53%), Mongolia (+50%), Mauritius (+46%), and Morocco (+44%).
Challenges Remain
Despite the optimistic forecasts for the current year, some uncertainties could still negatively affect the full recovery of international tourism. In summary, three factors are slowing economic recovery (currently stable but slow and with significant regional differences): firstly, the high costs of transport and accommodation due to inflation, high interest rates, volatile oil prices, and trade disruptions; secondly, climate change, with extreme weather events and increasingly frequent exceptional heat waves affecting many travelers’ destination choices; and thirdly, ongoing conflicts (the Russia-Ukraine war and the Hamas-Israel conflict) which threaten global stability and undermine traveler confidence.
Photo credits: Chait Goli
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