The European Travel Commission (ETC) has released the “European Tourism: Trends & Prospects” report for the second quarter of 2023. The analysis shows a consolidation of the recovery of international travel to Europe, which began in the first quarter of this year, with foreign tourist arrivals reaching 95% of 2019 levels.
This is a positive result considering the many challenges the industry still faces, such as inflation and uncertainty related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as staff shortages in accommodation facilities and the threat of aviation strikes and airspace closures due to the war. Nevertheless, the recovery is ongoing and confirmed in this second quarter of the year, thanks to consumer demand remaining high despite the increase in travel costs.
Preferential destinations with good value for money
Based on the data collected, a quarter of the destinations already surpass pre-pandemic levels of foreign arrivals. Among these, there are Serbia (+27%), Bulgaria (+21%), Montenegro (+12%), and Turkey (+9%), all destinations with good value for money. This is a clear sign that higher travel costs do not deter consumer enthusiasm but rather influence their choices towards more affordable destinations (Serbia and Turkey also benefit from not imposing restrictions on travelers from Russia).
Poland is also experiencing a particularly positive moment, having exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 4% due to the influx of journalists, official delegations, soldiers, and their families due to the war in Ukraine, along with Ukrainian refugees staying in Polish accommodation facilities. Negative results, on the other hand, were observed in 5 out of 27 destinations: Hungary (-20%), Germany (-21%), Finland (-22%), Lithuania (-28%), and Latvia (-32%).
Summer trends
From May to September 2023, airline ticket sales reached 91% of pre-pandemic levels. The data provided by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) confirms a very positive trend for this summer, both in terms of intra-European and long-haul travel. While demand in Europe is primarily driven by the Netherlands, France, and Italy, the United States remains the top performer for long-haul travel, thanks to a strong dollar, while markets in Asia and the Pacific still face difficulties.
The limited availability of flights from Russia to Europe weighs on travel demand to European destinations, particularly affecting Finland, Latvia, and Cyprus, traditional destinations for Russian tourists. However, countries like Serbia and Turkey that still have air routes to Russia benefit from this situation. Looking at air traffic volumes per country, Croatia, Portugal, and Serbia continue to exceed pre-pandemic levels, while destinations with weaker recovery are found in Eastern Europe (Lithuania, Latvia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and Slovenia), influenced by the war in Ukraine.
Germany also shows a relatively weak recovery of air traffic, probably due to two factors: a shift to alternative forms of transportation for domestic travel, such as road and rail, and the low-cost airline Ryanair significantly reducing its presence in German airports, in favor of other European markets like Austria.
Towards sustainable tourism
Despite the generally positive context, there are also areas of concern. Firstly, there are signs that the recovery may slow down due to persistently high inflation and sluggish economic growth. Another point of reflection highlighted by the ETC study concerns the issue of overtourism. To reduce the negative impact of overcrowding in tourist sites, it is increasingly necessary to rethink tourism strategies by offering alternative options to destinations prone to mass tourism. The goal must be to protect the environment through the development of more responsible and sustainable tourism that eases the pressure on tourist hotspots and spreads the benefits of tourism to lesser-known areas.
“The tourism industry has both the responsibility and the opportunity to protect the resources on which it depends, including the natural environment, wildlife, and cultural heritage that give life to travel experiences,” said Eduardo Santander, Executive Director of the European Travel Commission (ETC). “Sustainability is becoming a competitive advantage and one of the most important strengths of destinations. In the future, the competitiveness of tourism will directly depend on the progress made by destinations in offering more sustainable and climate-respectful travel“.
