At the end of the fourth quarter 2021, the uncertainty caused by the Omicron variant had a negative impact on the travel and tourism sector in Europe, hampering the recovery prospects in the first quarter of 2022. However, optimism remains, as the European Travel Commission (ETC) predicts that tourist arrivals will be just 20% below pre-pandemic levels this year, despite the many challenges the industry still faces. ETC’s latest quarterly report “European Tourism 2021 – Trends & Prospects (Q4 / 2021)” continues to monitor the impact of the pandemic on the industry, examining how travel activity is recovering as the world learns to live with the COVID-19.
“From our report, it is clear to see the stifling impact of uncertainty brought about by Omicron. ETC is optimistic that the European travel sector will overcome Omicron and the many other challenges present in 2022”, said Luís Araújo, ETC’s president. “However, the sector’s resilience is contingent on the EU being proactive in the development of endemic strategies that will allow for the loosening of travel restrictions for intra-European and international travel alike. As we learn to live with COVID-19, governments across Europe have to strike the right balance between managing health risks and facilitating mobility.”
Omicron slowed the recovery
In 2021, strong vaccination coverage in Europe, the EU’s digital Covid-19 certificate and the easing of travel restrictions created fertile ground for a strong recovery in tourism. However, the emergence of the Omicron variant slowed this process at the end of the year as restrictions were reintroduced to combat record-breaking infection rates.
This turn of events was demoralizing after a promising summer season. Overall, data since the beginning of the year indicates a 62% decrease in tourist arrivals to Europe for 2021 compared to 2019 levels. ETC notes that European destinations continue to recover at varying rates. Croatia (-37%), France (-39%), and Monaco (-40%) recorded the weakest declines based on data through December, due to demand from neighboring and large European home markets. At the same time, significant decreases were recorded in Finland (-80%) and central-eastern destinations: Czech Republic (-81%), Latvia (-78%), Estonia (-77%), Slovakia (-76%) and Lithuania (- 74%).
Positive prospects for 2022
Although the report predicts that Omicron will “stifle” the recovery of the travel industry in Europe in the first quarter of 2022, the outlook for Europe as a whole remains positive. With the understanding that the new variant, while highly contagious, is far from the threat it was initially believed to be, many travel restrictions in Europe are starting to be relaxed.
Driven by strong domestic and intra-European travel, overall travel demand is projected to be 20% below pre-pandemic levels in 2022. Furthermore, domestic travel is projected to exceed pre-pandemic peaks, while international travel is slower to recover, and the crisis is likely not to end completely until 2024.
In the fourth quarter of 2021 there was the resumption of travel between Europe and the United States, which occurred in November 2021, which is likely to help drive the recovery of European tourism in 2022. ETC estimates that the share of European travel from the United States it will return to pre-pandemic levels relatively quickly and in advance of demand from other long-range markets, such as Asia-Pacific, with a significant improvement expected this year. Despite optimism about increasing international travel, China’s prolonged “Zero Covid” stance presents some degree of uncertainty and could continue to affect global travel through 2022.
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